The wine industry is having a tumultuous 2025, and it is only March. Reduced consumption has resulted in an oversupply. The federal government’s tit-for-tat proposed tariffs on global trading partners like Canada, Mexico and the European Union are creating a jittery market and will generate unreasonable price increases that will impact the consumer pocketbook and hurt many businesses.

Are we now seeing the Wine Glass Half Empty?

“A market correction is underway,” notes Rob McMillan, EVP & Founder, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) Wine Division and author of the SVB’s State of the Wine Industry Report.

McMillian’s views are sought after and trusted by winery owners, journalists, entrepreneurs and investors. He has been named several times as one of the Top 50 Most Influential People in the U.S. wine industry. He also knows a few things about weathering storms. On March 10, 2023, Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) failed after a bank run. It was the third-largest bank failure in United States history and the largest since the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The bank’s assets were acquired by First Citizen’s Bank, and SVB is now division of that bank. Rob McMillan weathered that storm and is back on course.

And that is what the wine industry will do: weather the storm and get back on course. But how long will it take? Millian took time to sit down with us and discusses highlights from SVP’s 2025 State of the Wine Industry Report. Here are the report’s three key takeaways.

The supply imbalance of wine is caused by two dominant factors.

“A fundamental shift in consumer demographics coupled with a resurgence of anti-alcohol campaigns has resulted in reduced consumption and a corresponding supply imbalance. “The decline in the wine-friendly Boomer population and a change in the sentiment towards alcohol have led to the continued reduction in demand.”

 The decline of the Boomer population will drive a more aggressive outreach to                      younger consumers.

“The market is rotating out of 60+ aged consumers who index higher for wine purchases compared to other alcoholic beverage categories and making way for consumers who index lower for wine. Developing occasion-based marketing campaigns designed specifically for consumers aged 30 to 45 may help offset the decline in the Boomer segment.”

Look at flat growth through 2031.

“Boomers’ impact on sales declines should peak between 2029 and 2031, the premium business will return to flat growth between 2027 and 2029 and off-premises will move to flat growth between 2028 and 2031.”

Like making a fine wine, a correction can take time. But how long can we wait?

Download the State of the US Wine Industry Report 2025 | Silicon Valley Bank

Listen to our conversation with Rob McMillan on The Connected Table Live here: